Although Atlantic Niñas are much weaker than their Pacific counterparts, they can partially counteract La Niña by weakening the summer winds that help promote upwelling that cools the eastern Pacific.
Why are both incidents happening now?
Meteorologists’ forecast for July and August 2024 noted to be cold Atlantic Niñas appear to be developing along the equator. Sea surface winds were weak for most of the summer, and sea surface temperatures were very warm It’s very hot till early JuneSo the signs of the emerging Atlantic Nina were surprising.
At the same time, the water near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean was also cooling. La Nina conditions expected Will reach there by October or November.
Pacific-Atlantic Nina conjunction to be received Rare but not impossibleIt’s like finding two separate pendulums that are weakly coupled to each other swinging in opposite directions over time. More common are combinations of La Niña and Atlantic Niño, or El Niño and Atlantic Niña.
Good news or bad for hurricane season?
The Atlantic Nina could initially signal good news for those living in hurricane-prone areas.
Waters off the coast of Africa may be colder than average Suppressing the formation of African easterly waves. these are groups of stormy activities Which can take the form of a tropical disturbance and eventually a tropical storm or cyclone.
Tropical Storm Obtain energy from the process of evaporation of water Cooling in the tropical Atlantic is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures. Therefore, cooling in the tropical Atlantic could weaken this process. This would leave less energy for storms, reducing the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation.
However, NOAA takes all factors into account It updates its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane seasonReleased in early August, and it still expects an extremely active 2024 season. Tropical storm season usually peaks Early to mid-September.
There are two reasons behind inverse forecasting: Record-breaking heat is on the rise Warmer sea surface temperatures across much of the North Atlantic could strengthen storms. And the expected development of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean is likely to be weakened wind shear—A change in wind speed with height that can trigger hurricanes. The more powerful effects of La Niña can override any effects associated with an Atlantic Niña.
Making the problem worse: global warming
seen in the past two years Exceptionally high ocean temperatures The two Niñas are expected to bring some cooling relief to some areas across the Atlantic Ocean and most of the world’s oceans, but it may not last long.
In addition to these cycles, the trend of global warming due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions is raising the baseline temperature and may lead to further global warming. Fueling major storms,
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